On a Monday morning, a small developer does not look at the housing shortage first. He looks at the reservation list. Which buyers are still interested, which mortgage adviser has gone quiet, which contractor needs a start date, and which bank wants more certainty before the next step.
CBS figures published on 6 July explain why that list matters. In the first quarter of 2026, 5,126 new-build owner-occupied homes were sold in the Netherlands. That was 19.1 percent fewer than a year earlier, and the third quarterly fall in a row.
At the same time, almost 56,000 existing owner-occupied homes were sold, 8.7 percent more than in the first quarter of 2025. Prices still rose in both groups. That looks like a split market, not a simple slowdown. The country still needs homes. Buyers still move. Yet new-build projects have a harder job turning need into signed purchases.
The market is not one market
Existing homes and new-build homes ask different things from a buyer. An existing home has walls, a street, a neighbour, a delivery date and usually a clearer monthly cost. A new-build home asks for trust in drawings, planning, future interest costs, construction timing and finishing choices.
That difference shows in the numbers. CBS reported an average transaction value of €492,000 for existing homes in the first quarter, against €516,000 for new-build homes. In May, existing homes were 4.4 percent more expensive than a year earlier, while transactions were 2.5 percent lower than a year earlier.
Kadaster adds another layer. In the first quarter, investors sold more homes to owner-occupiers than they bought from them, with a net flow of more than 4,500 homes. Those homes were often cheaper. That can help first-time buyers, but it also changes the rental stock. A broker can feel that at the desk. Busy viewings in one part of town do not mean an apartment block on the edge of a municipality will sell at the planned price.
Where price meets lending
The uncomfortable point is not that Dutch households have stopped needing homes. CBS household forecasts still point upward, and the official housing shortage is estimated at 4.6 percent in 2026. The problem is fit.
An average new-build transaction value of €516,000 sits below the 2026 starter-exemption value limit of €555,000, but above the 2026 affordable owner-occupied cap of €420,000. That gap reaches into the drawing, the square metres, the parking solution, the land price, the finishing package and the margin. For the buyer, it also reaches into the monthly budget.
Belastingdienst guidance makes the tax file matter as well. The starter exemption depends on age, intended long-term residence, prior use and the full value of the home. For investors, the 2026 transfer tax rate for homes not used as the buyer’s main residence is 8 percent. Other immovable property remains at 10.4 percent.
Financing adds another gate. AFM set the mortgage test rate for the third quarter of 2026 at 5 percent for mortgages with a fixed-rate period shorter than ten years. AFM and DNB have also warned against loosening borrowing standards. Many starters already borrow close to their limit, so even a small change in rate or valuation can decide whether a deal closes.
Plans still have to become cash
The public side is pushing harder. The Wet Versterking regie volkshuisvesting entered into force on 1 July 2026. It gives the state, provinces and municipalities more steering power over how many homes are built, where and for whom. Regionally, two thirds of new homes must be affordable, and 30 percent of new construction must be social rent.
Rijksoverheid reported that 99,700 homes can be realised in 2027, according to ABF Research. For 2026 to 2030, gross plan capacity is 823,400 homes, with 386,200 already approved by municipal councils. Those are serious pipeline figures.
Still, a permit is not cash. CBS reported 23,500 permitted new-build homes in the first quarter, more than a year earlier. Yet only 13,700 new-build homes were added, fewer than a year earlier, and permits were withdrawn for 700 homes. Between permit and payment sit objections, grid capacity, nitrogen, water, labour, materials, buyers and the bank.
That is where small firms feel the pressure. Construction turnover excluding project development was 5.1 percent higher in the first quarter. Then CBS survey data showed construction confidence falling from 1.1 in the first quarter to -29.4 in the second. Labour shortage remained a main constraint for 21.7 percent of construction firms in April.
A contractor can be busy and fragile at the same time.
The discipline for tomorrow morning
The Monday reservation list is the right place to begin. National policy matters, but a small business survives on timing. A signed contract is different from an option. A mortgage approval is different from interest. A permit is different from a start date. Turnover is different from collected money.
For a small developer, the clean question is whether the planned mix matches the buyer pool under current prices and lending rules. For a contractor, the question is whether staff, subcontractors and materials are tied to confirmed project starts, not hopeful dates. For a broker or adviser, existing homes and new-build homes need separate reading.
There is also a quieter opportunity. Government is putting extra money into elderly housing and wants to make optoppen, splitting and home sharing easier. Some supply may come from better use of existing buildings, not only from new fields and large schemes. For owners and local advisers, that brings checks around permits, VvE consent, fire safety, parking, finance and neighbourhood acceptance.
The Dutch housing market is not sending one clean message. It is saying that need is high, prices are still rising, public steering is stronger, and buyers are more selective where new-build promises meet monthly reality.
That is not a reason to freeze. It is a reason to read the project more honestly. The homes may be needed. The plan may be approved. The question for tomorrow morning is simpler: can the intended buyer sign, finance, wait, and still feel that the price makes sense?
Want to discuss what this means for your business?
The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by Paolo Maria Pavan before publication.
References
- Weer minder nieuwbouwwoningen verkocht | CBS
- CBS - Latest monthly existing-home price signal
- CBS - Building permits and completions
- CBS - Construction confidence and operating pressure
- Kadaster - Buyer composition, investor sales, and cheaper existing stock
- Belastingdienst - Transfer tax shift affecting investor behaviour
- Belastingdienst - Starter exemption and transaction affordability boundary
- Rijksoverheid - Wet Versterking regie volkshuisvesting in force
