A small employer reviews the autumn order book and sees enough work, but not enough certainty. One employee is considering leaving. A regular contractor wants firmer terms. Two vacancies have attracted interest, yet few suitable candidates. Waiting feels tempting because the labour market is supposedly cooling.
The latest CBS figures, published on 30 July, explain why that decision is not straightforward. In the second quarter of 2026, vacancies fell by 3,000 and the number of jobs fell by 8,000. Unemployment also fell, by 17,000 to 396,000 people. The provisional figures show 95 vacancies for every 100 unemployed people. That is far below the 142 recorded in the second quarter of 2022, but it is not a relaxed hiring market.
Cooling is not the same as availability
A lower unemployment rate can sound like economic strength. For an employer filling Tuesday’s roster, it can mean fewer suitable candidates. CBS recorded an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent in the second quarter. Its June release also showed that some people who stopped working left the labour market rather than becoming immediately available jobseekers.
That distinction matters in daily operations. A national unemployment figure says little about whether an experienced mechanic, care worker, cook or bookkeeper is available nearby, wants the offered hours and accepts the salary. More than half of open vacancies remained in trade, care and business services. Construction had the highest vacancy rate, at 73 vacancies per 1,000 employee jobs.
The labour market has lost some heat without gaining much simplicity. Employers may face less frantic competition than in 2022, but they still need to make a convincing offer. Slower demand, meanwhile, makes a permanent hire harder to justify. Both sides can hesitate at the same table.
The hourly margin deserves attention
The employment decision is not only about salary. CBS reported that contractual employer labour costs per hour were 4.1 percent higher in June 2026 than a year earlier. Collectively agreed hourly wages, including special payments, rose by 4.2 percent. These broad indices point to pressure that reaches well beyond the payslip.
Consider a ten-person service firm that priced its annual contracts last winter. Clients expect the same response times, while wages, holiday cover and recruitment costs rise. One vacancy remains open, so the owner fills delivery gaps personally and pays occasional overtime. Revenue looks stable. The margin on each delivered hour quietly shrinks.
That is where HR and finance need the same conversation. The useful figure is not simply headcount. It is the full labour cost attached to the work sold. Management time, absence cover, agency fees, overtime and delays caused by missing capacity all belong in the calculation. A busy company can still lose financial room when customer prices reflect last year’s workforce.
Flexible staffing is changing shape
The second-quarter figures also show 13,000 fewer jobs at temporary employment agencies. Nearly 1.5 million people had self-employment as their main job, down 13,000 from the previous quarter. The decline came entirely from zzp workers. Their number has now fallen for six consecutive quarters and stood 131,000 below the fourth quarter of 2024.
Those movements change the staffing landscape for small firms. Agency labour and zzp capacity have long helped businesses absorb uncertain demand. Both routes are now under pressure. A founder may increasingly have to choose between hiring, redesigning the work, reducing output or accepting longer delivery times.
The compliance question sits inside that choice. Since 1 January 2025, the Belastingdienst has resumed normal enforcement of employment relationships. In 2026, a review generally starts with a company visit. Correction obligations and additional payroll-tax assessments remain possible, although the partial soft landing limits the general use of default penalties during this year.
A contractor agreement and a monthly invoice do not decide the relationship by themselves. Direction, working arrangements, integration into the business, commercial risk and actual entrepreneurial conduct all matter. When someone works fixed hours, performs core tasks and is managed like an employee, the employer should be able to explain why the chosen arrangement fits the daily reality.
One workforce, one business picture
Tomorrow morning, I would put three views beside each other: the work promised to customers, the people actually available and the current cost of every delivered hour. Many staffing problems become visible when those views meet. A vacancy may be unnecessary. A recurring contractor role may be structural. A profitable-looking client may depend on unpaid owner hours.
The same review can expose quieter risks. Overtime may have become routine. One employee may carry knowledge nobody else holds. An agency worker may have covered the same supposedly temporary gap for nine months. These facts do not dictate one legal or employment decision. They do demand an honest management decision.
For the employer at the autumn planning table, waiting may still be sensible. Give that waiting a price, a deadline and a clear effect on customers and staff. Hiring also needs a full cost, not merely a monthly gross salary entered into a spreadsheet.
The Dutch labour market is cooler, yet labour remains scarce where many small firms need it. Familiar flexible routes are narrowing while payroll costs keep moving. The calm response is not faster recruitment at any price. It is a staffing model that matches the work, the margin and the real relationship with every person doing it.
Let’s review whether your staffing model still fits your work, margin, cash, and contractor records
The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by Paolo Maria Pavan before publication.
References
- Werkloosheid gedaald in tweede kwartaal 2026 | CBS
- CBS - Latest monthly labour signal
- CBS - Contractual wage and employer-cost pressure
- Belastingdienst - Classification risk and the 2026 enforcement position
- Rijksoverheid - Policy direction for zzp and low-paid independent work
- UWV - Near-term vacancy and sector outlook
- Belastingdienst
- Belastingdienst
