A small installation company has enough work for six people, but only five are on the payroll. For two years, the owner has filled the gap with overtime, postponed jobs and the occasional subcontractor. When unemployment rises, an obvious thought follows: perhaps recruiting will finally become easier.
CBS reported unemployment at 4.0 percent in July 2026, or 404,000 people aged 15 to 75. Over the preceding three months, unemployment rose by an average of 2,000 people a month. The number of people in paid work fell by an average of 11,000 a month.
UWV recorded 199,700 ongoing WW unemployment benefits at the end of July, 1.4 percent more than in June. Together, these figures describe a labour market that is becoming less tight than it was.
Softer is not the same as easy
The national headline can still mislead an employer who needs one particular person in one particular place. At the end of the second quarter, the Netherlands had 95 open vacancies for every 100 unemployed people. That is close to one vacancy per jobseeker, before skills, location, hours and pay enter the conversation.
A technician in Enschede cannot automatically fill a vacancy in Rotterdam. A candidate available for three school-day shifts may not solve an evening roster. Someone seeking administrative work will not repair a machine, drive a lorry or run a professional kitchen. The labour pool remains shaped by trades, travel, working patterns and local pay.
The July figures change bargaining conditions more than they create a supply of cheap labour. Some employers may receive more applications and close vacancies sooner. Overtime and agency cover may become less necessary at the margin. Yet contracts, wage expectations and payroll obligations remain very real.
For the installation company, the sixth employee may be easier to find. Whether the company can carry that employee is another question. Availability and affordability are separate questions, and confusing them is costly.
The wage bill starts with the customer
A hiring decision often begins with operational discomfort. The team is tired. The diary is full. Customers are waiting. The founder spends evenings rearranging work that should have been planned during office hours. Adding a person feels like the clean answer.
The better question is what kind of demand supports that person. Confirmed, well-priced work differs from a busy calendar full of weak-margin jobs. A full week can still produce poor cash when travel, materials, rework and unpaid planning hours consume the sales value.
Household consumption was 1.7 percent higher in June than a year earlier, after adjustment for prices and shopping days. People were still spending. Consumer confidence remained deeply negative in July, however, while inflation rose to 3.2 percent.
That combination creates an awkward trading environment. Demand continues, but customers can remain cautious about larger commitments. A founder may protect turnover by discounting or absorbing higher fuel, energy and wage costs. Sales then look steady while margin quietly narrows.
Before expanding payroll, the owner needs to see the chain from contracted hours to productive work, customer price, invoice and collection. The employee is paid on a fixed date. The customer may pay later.
Flexibility needs a purpose
CBS found that entrepreneur confidence improved sharply at the start of the third quarter, although it remained negative for the nineteenth consecutive quarter. Among businesses facing greater uncertainty, increasing internal flexibility was the most common response.
Flexibility can mean sensible roster changes, temporary cover or delaying a permanent commitment until demand becomes clearer. It can also mask weak planning. Constantly changing hours, relying on overtime or shifting work between exhausted employees does not create useful flexibility. It transfers uncertainty to the team.
For a small employer, the practical divide lies between capacity that follows demand and costs that continue when demand pauses. That calls for a view of the next few months, not only next week’s appointments. Payroll, holiday pay, VAT, rent, supplier payments and expected customer receipts belong in the same picture.
The installation company may find that a new employee removes subcontracting costs and allows profitable jobs to finish sooner. It may instead find that the apparent staff shortage comes from poor scheduling, slow-paying customers or contracts priced before recent cost increases. Both conclusions matter. Only one supports recruitment.
A calmer moment for better choices
The rise in unemployment is no reason to freeze hiring. A role tied to dependable, profitable demand may still be necessary. Nor should employers expect wage pressure to fall quickly. Local experience will carry more weight than the national headline: application quality, time to hire, absence, retention and the pay candidates actually request.
CBS recorded fewer business bankruptcies in July than a year earlier. The labour market is adjusting while many businesses continue to trade and households continue to spend. Pressure remains real, but it is uneven across sectors, regions and individual companies.
This is a useful moment for discipline. Review the cost of overtime and external labour. Compare the wage bill with gross margin by activity where the records allow it. Look at overdue invoices before adding fixed payroll. Record whether a vacancy answers confirmed demand, replacement needs or simple operational frustration.
More jobseekers may give employers a little more choice. The durable advantage will belong to businesses that know what work they need, what that work earns and when the cash arrives. In a loosening labour market, careful hiring matters more than fast hiring.
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The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by Paolo Maria Pavan before publication.
